Markets Overview

U.S. equities slipped to close July on a cautious note as investors digested the Fed’s steady-rate decision, sticky yields, and a mixed earnings tape. The S&P 500 dipped 0.10 % to 6,328.03, dragged by technology and health-care profit-taking. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.27 % to 44,682.29, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.49 % to 20,792.35 on semiconductor weakness. Small-caps lagged again: the Russell 2000 slid 0.23 % to 2,255.10 amid rate-sensitive selling.

Breadth was negative on both exchanges (NYSE 1,158 adv / 1,720 decl, Nasdaq 1,592 adv / 2,137 decl). Volume ran above the 20-day average as month-end flows, earnings, and macro positioning drove activity. The VIX climbed to 16.2 (+0.4). The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 4.38 % (+3 bps) and the 2-year to 4.60 % (+2 bps). The DXY firmed to 101.2 (+0.4 %). Gold slipped to $2,297/oz (-0.2 %), while WTI crude advanced to $82.28/bbl (+0.4 %) on tight supply and Mideast risk.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500: 6,328.03, –0.10 %

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 44,682.29, –0.27 %

• Nasdaq Composite: 20,792.35, –0.49 %

• Russell 2000: 2,255.10, –0.23 %

• Advance–Decline: NYSE 1,158 / 1,720 • Nasdaq 1,592 / 2,137

• Volume: Above 20-day average; month-end & macro flows

• VIX: 16.2, highest since mid-July

• 10-Year Treasury: 4.38 %, +3 bps

• Dollar Index (DXY): 101.2, +0.4 %

• Gold: $2,297/oz, –0.2 %

• WTI Crude: $82.28, +0.4 %

Sector Movers

• Energy (XLE +0.7 %) – Crude rally & upstream beats boosted majors

• Industrials (XLI +0.5 %) – Aerospace, transports strong on earnings

• Materials (XLB +0.2 %) – Metals steady; chemicals mixed

• Utilities (XLU –0.6 %) – Hit by higher yields post-Fed

• Information Technology (XLK –0.8 %) – Chipmaker sell-off & megacap fatigue

Macro & News Drivers

• Fed on hold: Target range kept at 5.25 – 5.50 %; Powell cautious on cuts

• GDP confirmed: Q2 at +2.2 % a/r – slower yet steady growth

• ISM Manufacturing: Returned to expansion at 50.2 (vs. 49.9)

• Jobless claims: 221 k (vs. 225 k est.) – labor still resilient

• Dollar & yields: DXY to 101.2; 10-yr yield 4.38 % on sticky inflation tone

• Oil support: Inventory draws & shipping risks lifted crude prices

• China PMI: 49.7 – contraction continues, clouding global demand

Top Stock Movers (✓ Winners & ✗ Losers)

• ✓ Exxon Mobil (XOM) +2.3 % – Upstream strength, solid refining margins

• ✓ Caterpillar (CAT) +1.9 % – Beat Q2; upbeat infra demand outlook

• ✓ Prologis (PLD) +1.6 % – Industrial REITs lifted by logistics growth

• ✗ Nvidia (NVDA) –3.1 % – Profit-taking after strong run

• ✗ Eli Lilly (LLY) –2.2 % – Margin concerns post-earnings call

• ✗ Rivian (RIVN) –7.8 % – Guidance cut, supply constraints flagged

• ✓ Equal-Weight S&P 500 ETF (RSP) +0.4 % – Rotation into breadth

• ✗ First Solar (FSLR) –5.9 % – Margin squeeze on higher inputs

Technical & Sentiment

• S&P holds above 50-day MA (~6,315); momentum cooling

• VIX at 16.2: Hedging demand into jobs report

• Put–call 1.04: Downside protection favored

• Breadth: Only ~43 % of S&P stocks above 50-day MA

• Bond–equity correlation negative: Rising yields weigh on growth names

• Short interest rising in high-beta tech & cyclicals

Flows & Positioning Trends

• ETF flows: +$1.6 B to energy, +$1.1 B industrials; –$0.74 B tech outflows

• Bond funds: Inflows to short-duration & floaters; outflows from long Treasuries

• Hedge funds: Add cyclicals/value, trim megacap tech

• Retail: Shift to energy, value ETFs; lighten speculative tech

• Commodity ETPs: Oil inflows, gold outflows

• Volatility ETPs: Assets up with VIX rise

Key Risks

• Jobs report: Strong print could push yields higher, pressure equities

• Fed hawkishness: More aggressive tone risks valuation compression

• Global growth: China contraction & EU malaise threaten cyclicals

• Geopolitics: Mideast shipping & Russia–Ukraine tensions elevate commodity volatility

• Valuations: High-multiple tech vulnerable to rates & earnings misses

Outlook & Positioning

• Tactical overweight: Energy, industrials, value-tilted cyclicals

• Neutral/underweight: Duration-sensitive tech & growth until post-earnings clarity

• Defensive hedge: Retain some utilities & health-care exposure

• Protection: SPX 6,300/6,150 put spreads or VIX calls through NFP

• Watch: Friday’s payrolls for wage-inflation clues; breadth improvement needed before re-adding to tech leadership