XPOF Stock Signals & AI Insights | Sagehood AI

6/30/2025

Comprehensive Analysis

Financial Health: XPOF’s balance sheet reveals severe deterioration, with negative equity (-$108.4M as of Q1 2025) and a debt-to-equity ratio exceeding 11x. The current ratio (0.81) and quick ratio (~0.69) indicate liquidity stress, while interest coverage remains negative, heightening default risk. Despite strong gross margins (75.6% TTM), net income has turned negative (-$66.6M TTM), underscoring profitability challenges.
Business Performance: Revenue growth has nearly doubled from $155.1M in 2021 to $320.3M in 2024, but Q1 2025 revenue ($76.9M) shows a 3.17% TTM decline. North America system-wide sales grew 21% YoY to $465M, yet this is overshadowed by broader financial instability. Analysts project modest EBIT growth (from $13.5M in Q1 2025 to $31M by Q4 2026), but net income remains a concern.
Valuation & Intrinsic Value: A DCF model using a 9.5% WACC and 2% terminal growth yields a base-case intrinsic value of $10.5–$12.5/share. Relative multiples (EV/EBITDA 10x–12x) align with this range. However, the stock trades near the lower end of the fair value spectrum ($7.6/share as of May 2025), offering a margin of safety of ~30–40% if the base case materializes.