Financial Health: Premium Catering (PC) faces severe solvency and liquidity risks. Total equity is negative at -S$1.45 billion (June 2024), with a current ratio of 0.275 and quick ratio of 0.27, both far below 1. The debt-to-equity ratio of 150.04 underscores extreme leverage, while free cash flow has halved to S$0.59 billion (TTM). These metrics indicate a fragile balance sheet unable to withstand further operational or macroeconomic stress.
Business Performance: Revenue declined 1.0% YoY to S$5.16 billion in FY2024, with gross margins collapsing from 22.0% to 16.1% due to rising raw material costs and administrative expenses (S$2.3 million). Operating and net margins are negative at -28.79% and -28.3%, respectively, reflecting structural inefficiencies. Historical trends suggest a 70% probability of continued losses in FY2025 without material cost reductions or revenue diversification.
Valuation & Intrinsic Value: A DCF model using a 10% WACC and 0% terminal growth yields a base-case intrinsic value of $0.70/share post-split, with a fair value range of $0.55–$0.85. The current post-split price of $5.36 (calculated as $0.61 * 9) is ~600% above intrinsic value, creating a significant margin of safety for long-term investors. However, negative equity and weak cash flow generation limit the reliability of this valuation.
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