4/30/2025

Comprehensive Analysis

• Earnings Catalyst and Merger Synergy: Amcor’s Q1 earnings (April 30) and the finalized $13.5B Berry Global merger are pivotal. The merger is projected to generate $650M in annual synergies, boosting market share to 18% in key regions. However, earnings estimates (5.2% YoY revenue growth, 12.5% EBIT margin) face skepticism due to elevated debt (1.95x leverage) and integration risks. A 2% revenue beat could drive a 4-5% rally, while a 5% miss may trigger a 3-4% decline.